The first UFC PPV I'll be previewing on the blog, first one in the great province of Ontario, a boat load of people going to it= one heck of a special event. For these reasons I'll give a run down on the entire card top to bottom, big bonus as through Facebook and Spike we will get a chance to watch every single fight on the card. I think the UFC has done a great job with their match making on this one so lets get to it because there's a lot of them!
Georges St. Pierre vs Jake Shields
GSP fighting in front of his home country for a 3rd time while looking to defend his title for the 6th straight time. He has won 8 fights in a row and hasn't lost a round in any of those fights, he most recently defeated Josh Koscheck by decision in December. Jake Shields, the former Strikeforce Middleweight and Elite XC Welterweight champ has won 15 in a row most recently his UFC debut a split decision over Martin Kampmann. Shields definitely wants to get this fight on the ground and it's very possible he will be able to and GSP could be trouble if it does. Not as much trouble Jake could find himself if this fight stays standing. I think that will be the difference in this fight GSP's advantage in striking is much larger than Shields on the ground.
Prediction St. Pierre Decision- Shields is going to be a tough guy to finish so no faulting GSP if he can't. I can see a similar game plan in play as GSP had in the Koscheck fight using his superior striking accuracy.
Featherweight Title
Jose Aldo vs Mark Hominick
Jose Aldo will be defending his featherweight title against Ontario native Mark Hominick. Aldo has been a wrecking machine winning 11 in a row including 7 T(KO) finishes in the WEC. Hominick veteran of 28 MMA bouts has won 5 in a row including his most recent TKO win over George Roop in January. Aldo seems to be the overwhelming favorite here but the question is will we see any of his ground game we've heard so much about? It is a very distinct possibility as Hominick is a more than competent striker and will be looking to knock out Aldo. It is worth mentioning however that Hominick does have nearly as many submission wins as KO's (7 subs to 9 KO's)
Prediction Aldo TKO 2nd Round- Aldo just seems too much of a dynamic,complete fighter for Hominick to handle. Was tempted to say a submission but sticking with my original thought.
Randy Couture vs Lyoto Machida
Couture who has stated win or lose this will be his last fight has won 3 in a row. His last fight was against boxer James Toney who he submitted in the 1st round. Machida has lost 2 in a row, his last a very close split decision to Rampage Jackson. If Couture does win 2 big questions arise 1. Will Randy actually retire? and 2. Would Machida be cut after losing 3 in a row? If I were a betting man I would think Randy retires before Machida ever gets cut. I really am intrigue with this match up as we have the ultimate strategists going up against a very elusive fighter. Randy wants this to look like his fight with Vera and push Machida up against the cage, Machida wants to use his speed standing and pick apart Randy. No matter what happens we should see the end of the careers of one of the best to step in the cage and to do it against the classy Machida should make it a moment we all won't forget.
Prediction Machida TKO 2nd Round- Couture will not have an answer for Machida's elusive striking style
Mark Bocek vs Ben Henderson
Henderson is coming off his WEC Lightweight title fight where he lost an exciting decision to Anthony Pettis. Bocek is coming off an impressive triangle choke win over Dustin Hazelett at UFC 124. Bocek has recently claimed to have the best jiu jitsu in the lightweight division, and Henderson has shown incredible submission defense against Cerrone but one would think if Bocek had he caught in the same holds it would of been a different story. This fight is razor thing to really pick a winner but who ever it is will make a big statement in the lightweight division.
Prediction Henderson Decision- Henderson is still a great wrestler and a better striker than Bocek with that I think he can keep this on the feet and away from Bocek's great jiu jitsu.
Jason Brilz vs Vladimir Matyushenko
Brilz has not been in the cage since May of last year where he lost a very close split decision lose to Rogerio Nogueira where many people thought we won outright. Matyushenko the veteran of 8 UFC bouts is coming off a TKO win over Alexandre Ferreira in November. This fight was original suppose to take place at UFC 122 but the previously mentioned Ferreira replaced the injured Brilz. 2 questions to ask going into this fight are 1) Has Brilz recovered from his injuries and his lay off? and 2) Has Matyushenko's age caught up to him?
Prediction Brilz Decision- I'm going with Brilz being able to control this fight with his wrestling. Matyushenko has been literally in there with the who's who list of MMA elite but you have to start wondering how much he has left.
Rory MacDonald vs Nate Diaz
The Water Boy finally makes his return to the Octagon having not been in action since his entertaining fight against Carlos Condit in May of 2010. Diaz is coming off an entertaining affair him self, a decision lose to Dong Hyun Kim this past January. This has Fight Of the Night written all over it. Diaz has great jiujitsu but has no issue getting into a slug fest which I don't think Macdonald would mind. Both have fought as lightweights in the past but Macdonald should have the size advantage in this one. One has to wonder what effect their training camps have had them, MacDonald has been in Montreal full time where as Diaz has had his teammates all in big fights within the same time period and Jake Shields and Daniel Roberts on the same card.
Prediction MacDonald Decision- In my defense I'm not picking all Canadians, but I have to go with Macdonald since we're from the same area and I've seen him as a 17 year old on smaller shows. I think MacDonald will be able to use his size to control this fight where ever it may go.
Sean Pierson vs Jake Ellenberger
Pierson returns to the Octagon after his exciting decision win over Matt Riddle. Jake Ellenberger steps in on late notice for the injured Brian Foster, Ellenberger has won 3 in a row.
Prediction Ellenberger Decision- Ellenberger should be able to take Pierson down with his superior wrestling and grind out this win.
Yves Jabouin vs Pablo Garza
Garza is coming off competing in the first ever UFC featherweight fight in which he won in impressive fashion winning with a flying knee 51 seconds into the fight over Fredson Paixao. Jabouin will be making his UFC debut is coming off a decision win over Brandon Visher in the WEC. Despite the recent KO win by Garza this really is a classic grappler vs striker matchup the question is who can survive in their opponents strength long enough to get the fight where they want it?
Prediction Jabouin TKO 2nd Round- Jabouin will be able to avoid Garza's ground game and use his stand up advantage to take this one.
Claude Patrick vs Daniel Roberts
Patrick enters the octagon winner of his last 12 in a row including 2 UFC victories. Roberts has won 3 in a row the last 2 by submission. I'm really looking forward to this one and hope to see a great ground battle. Roberts has the better jiujitsu but Patrick would have the edge with wrestling and striking. Winner of this one should see them self closer to the top of the card in their next fight.
Prediction Patrick Decision- Patrick should be able defend any submissions from Roberts and be able to control this fight from top position.
Ivan Menjivar vs Charlie Valencia
Menjivar returns to the UFC after a 2004 decision lose to Matt Serra. Valencia is making his UFC debut. With both coming off loses in the WEC loser could find them selves one and down with the UFC.
Prediction Menjivar Decision- Menjivar should be able to handle Valencia where ever this fight may end up.
Jason MacDonald vs Ryan Jensen
MacDonald returns to action and the UFC after suffering a serious injury in his last fight against Jon Salter. He broke his left tibia and fibula as well as dislocating his ankle in the May 2010 bout. Jensen is coming off a lose to Court McGee and is only 2-3 in his 2nd stint with the UFC. Jensen could be on his way out with another lose but can't really say for sure what would happen with MacDonald just when you think he's gone from the UFC they have another event in Canada and bring him back plus he always seems to put on a good show.
Prediction MacDonald Submission 2nd Round- Jensen has been in trouble with good grapplers and MacDonald is..well good.
John Makdessi vs Kyle Watson
Makdessi, undefeated at 8-0 will be making his return after an impressive win over Pat Audinwood. Watson a member of Season 12 of The Ultimate Fighter will also be making his 2nd appearance in the UFC is coming off a win over Sako Chivitchyan. Should be a decent fight to kick off the show as it's another striker vs grappler matchup.
Prediction Makdessi TKO 1st Round- Makdessi should be able to keep this standing and get Watson out of his comfort zone and in trouble.
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