The UFC makes it way into Toronto for the 2nd time in 2011 after their first venture was the largest attending UFC event in history. The audience will be smaller this time around as it is taking place at the Air Canada Center but the excitement level should be just as high with this stacked card. The main event features champion Jon Jones defending his title against former champion Lyoto Machida. The Nogueira brothers compete on the same card for the 5th time in their careers and first time in the UFC. Rodrigo will be rematching Frank Mir while Rogerio will be facing Tito Ortiz. A potential fight of the night between Mark Hominick and Chan Sung Jung and a Welterweight clash between Brian Ebersole and Claude Patrick round out the main card.
14-1 Record 17-2
24 Age 33
204.5 Weight 204.5
6'4 Height 6'1
84.5" Reach 74"
-440 Odds +250
Common opponents:Mauricio Rua
Jones won by TKO 3rd Round at UFC 128 3/19/11
Machida lost by TKO 1st Round at UFC 113 5/13/10
Machida won by Unanimous Decision at UFC 104 10/24/09
Quinton Jackson
Jones won by Submission 4th round at UFC 135 9/24/11
Machida loss by Split Decision at UFC 123 11/20/10
How they got here: Jones is coming of his first title defense against Rampage Jackson who he defeated by submission at UFC 135. Officially Jones has won 5 fights in a row all by stoppage since his DQ against Matt Hamill. Machida is on a modest 1 fight win streak but that one win came over Hall Of Famer Randy Couture in form of the front runner for KO of the year at UFC 129.
What to expect: Hard to really gauge what is going to happen in a Jon Jones fight with his unpredictable and unorthdox striking. Not to be outdone Machida to can give opponents fits with his striking and as he has shown against Randy Couture, Rashad Evans Thiago Silva among others he can threaten with a devastating strike at a moments notice. Having these 2 face off is an intriguing situation, will Jones' reach negate Machida's in and out attacking style? can Machida defend off his back? Will Jones get over confident and attempt something risky? There is alot of questions stylistically in this matchup but the biggest one really is, Is Jon Jones just too much to handle for anyone at this point? my definitive answer is...probably
My prediction: Jones by TKO 4th Round
Frank Mir vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
15-5 Record 33-6-1
32 Age 35
260 Weight 243
6'1 Height 6'3
79" Reach 77"
-250 Odds +210
Common opponents:Mirko Cro Cop
Mir won by TKO 3rd Round at UFC 119 9/25/10
Nogueira won by Submission 2nd Round at Pride: Final Conflict 2003 11/9/03
Tim Sylvia
Mir won by Submission 1st Round at UFC 48 6/19/04
Nogueira won by Submission 3rd Round at UFC 81 2/2/08
How they got here: Nogueira is coming off his emotional TKO win over Brendan Schaub at UFC 134 in his home country for the first time in his legendary career. Mir is coming off his decision win over Roy Nelson at UFC 130 and has won 2 fights in a row overall.
What to expect: Nogueira has stated in their first fight that he was struggling with injuries and a staph infection, he is coming off a win but rushed his recovery to get on the card and had moments during that fight where he looked shaky. His movement looked sluggish something he will need to correct against Mir, if he can he does have the technical advantage on the feet against Mir but Mir has more power. On the ground it's most likely that Mir would end up on top but Nogueira can attack from his back with sweeps and even submissions.
My prediction: Nogueira by Decision
Tito Ortiz vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
16-9-1 Record 19-5
36 Age 35
206 Weight 206
6'2 Height 6'2
74" Reach 75"
+175 Odds -215
Common opponents:Ryan Bader
Ortiz won by Submission 1st Round at UFC 132 7/2/11
Nogueira lost by Decision at UFC 119 9/25/10
Vladimir Matyushenko
Ortiz won by Decision at UFC 33 9/28/01
Nogueira won by TKO 2nd Round at Affliction: Day Of Reckoning 1/24/09
Guy Mezger
Ortiz lost by Submission 1st Round UFC 13 5/30/97
Ortiz won by TKO 1st Round at UFC 19 3/5/99
Nogueira won by Decision at Pride 24 12/23/03
How they got here: A fight originally scheduled for UFC Fight Night 24 but an injury to Ortiz forced him out and replaced by Phil Davis. Ortiz is coming off his short notice fight with Rashad Evans at UFC 133 where he lost by TKO. Nogueira is coming off the mentioned fight to Phil Davis at UFC Fight Night 24 where he lost a decision and overall has lost 2 in a row.
What to expect: Both could be fighting for their job or in Tito's case his career. Ortiz could probably copy the game plan of Phil Davis and try and outwrestle Nogueira but Nogueira is always dangerous on the ground against just about anyone. If the fight does stay on the feet though Nogueira has the advantage from a technical standpoint but as Ortiz proved against Bader he does have some underrated power in his hands.
My prediction: Nogueira by TKO 2nd Round
Mark Hominick vs Chan Sung Jung
20-9 Record 11-3
29 Age 24
145 Weight 146
5'8 Height 5'9
68.5" Reach 72"
-380 Odds +290
Common opponents:Leonard Garcia
Jung won by submission 2nd Round at UFC Fight Night 24 3/26/11
Jung lost by split decision at WEC 48 4/24/10
Hominick won by split decision at WEC 51 9/30/10
George Roop
Jung lost by TKO 2nd Round at WEC 51 9/30/10
Hominick won by TKO 1st Round at UFC: Fight For The Troops 2 1/22/11
How they got here: Hominick is coming off his spirited title fight against Jose Aldo at UFC 129, a fight he lost but put the champion in the most danger he has been in. Jung is coming off his twister submission win over Leonard Garcia at UFC Fight Night 24, a submission that is pretty much a lock for submission of the year.
What to expect: A great fight on paper, which really is no matter where it may end up. If Jung elects to start a brawl it could play into the hands of Hominick's technical striking. On the ground Jung will threaten with submissions but Hominick has shown in the past he has great submission defense and even has his own submissions he can attack with.
My prediction: Hominick by Decision
Claude Patrick vs Brian Ebersole
14-1 Record 48-14-1
31 Age 31
169.5 Weight 171
5'10 Height 6'0
75" Reach 73"
-105 Odds -125
Common opponents: noneHow they got here: It took over 60 career fights to get into the UFC for Ebersole and he has made the most of it winning his first 2 fights with the organization with the latest being a TKO over Dennis Hallman at UFC 133. Patrick jumps up from the prelims to replace the injured and fellow Canadian Rory MacDonald to take on Ebersole. Overall both are on impressive winning streaks with Ebersole's at 9 and Patrick's at 13.
What to expect: Both have well respected ground games and could be a great battle if it goes there. On the feet Ebersole could have the advantage with his unorthodox style but Patrick should be able to find a way to get the win in this one.
My prediction: Patrick by Decision
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