Friday, November 11, 2011

UFC On Fox 1: Previewing The Prelims

Ben Henderson vs Clay Guida
14-2 Record 30-11
27 Age 29
156 Weight 155
5'9 Height 5'7
70" Reach 68"
-250 Odds +200
Common opponents: Anthony Pettis- Henderson loss by decision at WEC 53
                                                         Guida win by decision The Ultimate Fighter 13 Finale
How they got here: Guida is coming off his win over Anthony Pettis at The Ultimate Fighter 13 Finale and has won 4 fights in a row that also includes submission wins over Takanori Gomi and Rafael Dos Anjos.  Henderson has won both his UFC fights since losing the WEC title to Pettis with his most recent win coming over Jim Miller at UFC Live 5.

What to expect: Officially a #1 contender fight for the right to face Frankie Edgar in Japan for the Lightweight title.  Guida's key to victory most likely lays in getting inside on Henderson and turning this fight into a brawl.  Henderson has shown he is nearly impossible to submit and can handle wrestlers as well as he showed against Jim Miller so any attempt to get this to the ground could be worthless for Guida.  For Henderson it's all about surviving the early onslaught Guida will probably have for him and could possibly look for a takedown of his own and get Guida on his back.

My Prediction: Henderson by Decision

Dustin Poirier vs Pablo Garza
10-1 Record 11-1
22 Age 28
146 Weight 145
5'9 Height 6'1
73" Reach 74"
-315 Odds +250
Common opponents: none

How they got here: Poirer has won his first 2 UFC's and 3 in a row overall with his most recent victory coming over Jason Young at UFC at UFC 131.  Garza has also won his first 2 UFC fights with his most recent coming over Yves Jabouin where he won by submission in the come from behind fight at UFC 129.

What to expect: Garza usually has a big reach advantage in his fights and has taken full advantage of it in his last 2 fights but against Poirier despite having a 4 inch height advantage there is only a 1 inch difference in their rearch.  Poirier should be the more powerful fighter and should be able to put Garza on his back and grind him for all 3 rounds.

My Prediction: Poirier by Decision

Cub Swanson vs Ricardo Lamas
15-4 Record 10-2
28 Age 29
145 Weight 145.5
5'7 Height 5'8
70" Reach 69"
+105 Odds -130
Common opponents: none

How they got here: Swanson is finally making his UFC debut after having 2 previous bouts with Eric Koch cancelled due to injury.  Swanson's last bout was a split decision win over Mackens Semezier at WEC 52.  Lamas is coming off his UFC debut at UFC Live 4 where he defeated Matt Grice by TKO.

What to expect: Lamas already has 1 fight of UFC experience under his belt but Swanson being the more well rounded fighter who's face slightly better competition.

My Prediction: Swanson by Decision

Clay Harvison vs DaMarques Johnson
9-3 Record 12-9
31 Age 29
170 Weight 171
6'0 Height 6'0
74" Reach 75"
+220 Odds -260
Common opponents: none

How they got here: A fight originally scheduled for UFC Fight Night 25 but cancelled because of a Johnson injury.  Harvison would end up losing to Johnson's replace Seth Baczynski by submission.  Johnson is also coming off a submission loss, his to Amir Sadollah at UFC Fight Night 24.

What to expect: Both are coming off submission loses but Johnson should have the advantage on the ground and shouldn't have a problem getting the fight there.  Harvison to his credit should defend enough to get to the final bell.

My Prediction: Johnson by Decision

Norifumi Yamamoto vs Darren Uyenoyama
18-4 Record 6-3
34 Age 32
135 Weight 136
5'4 Height 5'6
66" Reach N/A
-400 Odds +300
Common opponents: none

How they got here:  Yamamoto is coming off his highly anticipated UFC debut at UFC 126 where he dropped a decision to Demetrious Johnson.  Yamamoto has had to withdraw out of 2 fights since his debut which where against Chris Cariaso at UFC 130 and Damacio Page at UFC 135.  Uyenoyama is making his UFC debut having won his last fight by TKO.

What to expect: Yamamoto perhaps draws an easier opponent than the last 2 he has been forced out of.  Look for Yamamoto to push the action looking for an impressive performance to possible get himself on the Japan event in February.

My Prediction: Yamamoto by TKO 1st Round

Robert Peralta vs Mackens Semerzier
15-3 Record 6-3
25 Age 31
145.5 Weight 146
5'7 Height 5'9
71" Reach 72"
+105 Odds -130
Common opponents: none

How they got here: Peralta is coming off his UFC debut win over Mike Lullo at UFC Fight Night 25 and has won 8 fights in a row overall.  Semerzier is also coming off his UFC debut with his being a submission over Alex Caceres at UFC Fight Night 24.


What to expect: Semerzier willingness to stand and bang with his opponents could spell trouble against Peralta would showed in his last bout a very well rounded striking game.  Semerzier's best bet is to out wrestle Peralta put him on his back and look for some ground and pound.  Peralta though wouldn't be at a complete disadvantage against Semerzier on the ground as the 2 submission wins so far on his record don't completely show his above average skills on the ground.

My Prediction: Peralta by Decision

Alex Caceres vs Cole Escovedo
5-4 Record 17-8
23 Age 30
146 Weight 135
5'10 Height 5'7
73" Reach 72"
+230 Odds -270
Common opponents: none

How they got here: Caceres has now lost his first 2 UFC bouts by submission, his latest was against Jimmy Hettes at UFC Live 5.  Escovedo also on a 2 fight losing streak in the UFC lost his latest to Takeya Mizugaki by TKO at UFC 135.

What to expect: Caceres has had trouble defending submissions so far in his UFC career and he got no favours being matched against Escovedo.  Escovedo pretty much has the advantage where ever this fight may end up but a submission seems like the most likely scenario.

My Prediction: Escovedo by Submission 1st Round

Mike Pierce vs Paul Bradley
 14-4 Record 18-3
31 Age 28
171 Weight 185
5'8 Height 5'9
71" Reach 72"
-500 Odds +350
Common opponents: Nathan Coy- Pierce loss by decision at SF 23 6/20/08
                                                        Bradley win by decision at WCA 2/6/09

How they got here: A rematch from their 2009 bout which Pierce won by decision.  Pierce is coming off his lose to Johnny Hendricks in a close decision at UFC 133.   Bradley also competed at UFC 133 against Rafael Natal losing a decision in his debut with the organization.

What to expect: Pierce should be able to get by Bradley yet again controlling all 3 rounds with his superior wrestling.

My Prediction: Pierce by Decision

Aaron Rosa vs Matt Lucas
16-4 Record 14-2
28 Age 37
261 Weight 186
6'3 Height 6'1
77" Reach N/A
-115 Odds -105
Common opponents: none

How they got here: Rosa will be making the move to the Light Heavyweight division after having lost his UFC debut at Heavyweight against Joey Beltran at UFC 131.  Lucas is also making the move to the Light Heavyweight division although he is making the move from the Middleweight division.  Overall Lucas has won 5 fights in a row going into his UFC debut.

What to expect: Rosa did weigh 261 in his last bout and may have people questioning his ability to cut down to the Light Heavyweight division but he has competed in the division as recent as 2010.  What advantage being in the division brings Rosa is his size and his reach which he should be able to pick apart Lucas while avoiding the wrestlers takedowns.

My Prediction: Rosa by TKO 2nd Round

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