Thursday, August 11, 2011

UFC Live 5: Previewing the Prelims

Joseph Benavediz vs Eddie Wineland
14-2 Record 18-7-1
27 Age 27
136 Weight 135.5
5'4 Height 5'8
65" Reach 69"
-260 Odds +200
How They Got Here: Benavediz looks to get back in the title picture having already won 2 in a row since his title bout lose to Dominick Cruz.  Wineland is looking for revenge after most recently losing to Benavediz's teammate Urijah Faber.

What To Expect: Benavediz will want to set the pace pushing Winleand but at the same time avoiding the reach and striking advantage Wineland will have.  Look for Benavediz to set up takedowns and possibly look for submissions.  Wineland, while having the reach and height advantage could come in handy with his striking he probably will come in a cautious game plan hoping to avoid going to the ground.  With all do respect to the Sadollah vs Ludwig bout I really think the UFC could of found some space on the main card for this bout.

My Prediction: Benavediz by Decision


C.B. Dollaway vs Jared Hamman
11-3 Record 12-3
28 Age 29
185 Weight 205
6'2 Height 6'3
76" Reach
-260 Odds +205
How They Got Here: Both are coming off of loses and want to get back on track.  Dollaway's latest setback was a TKO lose to Mark Munoz only 54 seconds into the bout, where as Hamman lost a decision to Kyles Kingsbury.

What To Expect: I expect Dollaway to go back to his base of wrestling just to get back into the win column, but once there I think he should be able to gain position on Hamman and possibly go for the finish.  Hamman probably has trained alot of takedown defense to prepare for Dollaway and will want to keep this fight standing if he wants a shot at winning.

My Prediction: Dollaway by TKO 2nd Round

Kyle Noke vs Ed Herman
19-4-1 Record 22-9
30 Age 31
184 Weight 186
6'0 Height 6'2
76" Reach 75"
-170 Odds +140
How They Got Here: Noke has been on an impressive streak winning 5 in a row with the last 3 coming by way of stoppage, most recently a submission over Chris Camozzi.  Herman is coming off his win over Aaron Simpson after being out of action for almost a year.

What To Expect: Lucky for Herman he has his wrestling base behind him and I surely believe he will want to use it to avoid the heavy handed Noke at all costs.  Obviously Noke will be wanting to do the exact opposite keeping the fight standing stuffing Herman's takedowns and going for the KO, that is however easier said than done.

My Prediction: Herman by Decision
Karlos Vemola vs Ronny Markes
8-1 Record 11-1
26 Age 23
205 Weight
6'0 Height 6'1
Reach
-225 Odds +180
How They Got Here: Vemola looks to build on his Light Heavyweight debut which was a win over Seth Petruzelli as he takes on Ronny Markes who replaced an injured Stephan Bonnar.  Markes is making his UFC debut and has won 4 fights in a row including his most recent over Paulo Filho.

What To Expect: Cardio is definitely going to come into place with these 2 and Vemola will be the one looking for a early finish.  Markes does have an impressive top game and if he does survive the early onslaught from Vemola that top game will very much be a factor in the outcome of the bout.  The key is being able to survive the powerful Vemola which I think could be too much of a tall task for the newcomer.

My Prediction: Vemola by TKO 1st Round

Jim Hettes vs Alex Caceres
7-0 Record 5-3
24 Age 23
145 Weight 146
5'9 Height 5'10
Reach
-400 Odds +300
How They Got Here: The undefeated Hettes replaces the injured Leonard Garcia and will be making his UFC debut.  All 7 of Hettes wins have impressively come by way of submission.  Caceres a cast member of The Ultimate Fighter season 13 is looking to rebound from his UFC debut, a submission lose against Mackens Semerzier.

What To Expect: Doesn't look good when fighter A has all his career wins by submission and fighter B has lost 3 of his last 4 fights to submission.  Plain and simple Hettes is coming in to impress and will be looking to get this to the ground and get the submission.  Caceres will want to keep this standing and keep Hettes off balance with his unorthodox style.

My Prediction: Hettes by Submission 1st Round

Cole Miller vs TJ O'Brien
17-5 Record 16-4
27 Age
155.5 Weight 155
6'1 Height 6'2
73" Reach
-410 Odds +310
How They Got Here: Both are hungry for a win after coming off loses, Miller to Matt Wiman in an exciting decision and O'Brien in his UFC debut against Paul Kelly.

What To Expect: Miller could find himself in a more competitive fight than he bargain for with the tough O'Brien.  Miller though should be able to get this fight to the ground and in his advantage with his impressive submission game.

My Prediction: Miller by Submission 2nd Round

Danny Castillo vs Jacob Volkmann
11-3 Record 12-2
31 Age 30
155 Weight 156
5'9 Height 5'9
Reach
-130 Odds +105
How They Got Here: Castillo has been on a bit of a roll as of late winning his last 3 including most recently his UFC debut against Joe Stevenson.  Volkkmann is also on a 3 fight win streak since dropping down to the Lightweight division, his most recent win coming over Antonio McKee.

What To Expect: We should expect a grueling bout no matter where this goes but I see Volkmann be able to get Castillo down and grinding out a close decision.

My Prediction: Volkmann by Decision
Jason Reinhardt vs Edwin Figueroa
20-2 Record 7-1
41 Age 26
145 Weight 136
5'6 Height 5'7
64" Reach 69"
+265 Odds -340
How They Got Here: Both are coming off loses in their UFC debuts with Reinhardt losing by a quick submission over Zhang Tie Quan, where as Figueroa is coming off his fight of the night performance at UFC Fight Night 24 with Michael Mcdonald which he lost by decision.

What To Expect: Record and experience aside I think Reinhardt could be in tough against Figueroa.  Figeuroa should be able to use his superior stand up game while at the same time avoid be taken down and grinding on my Reinhardt which is the only way Reinhardt can get a win in this one.

My Prediction: Figueroa by Decision

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