Main Event
BJ Penn vs Nick Diaz
16-7-2 Record 25-7
16-7-2 Record 25-7
32 Age 28
167 Weight 169
5'9 Height 6'0
70" Reach 74"
-130 Odds +100
How they got here: A whirlwind of changes results in Penn taking on Diaz in the main event. Diaz was pulled from his main event and title shot against George St. Pierre with Penn's original opponent Carlos Condit taking Diaz's spot against the champion. Finally an injury to St. Pierre put this bout into the main event slot and is worthy of it. Penn is coming off his draw with Jon Fitch at UFC 127 and his KO win over Matt Hughes at UFC 123 in his latest dive into the Welterweight division. Diaz is making his return to the UFC after he went 6-4 with the organization from 2003-2007. Since leaving the UFC Diaz has gone 11-1 with 1 no contest picking up the Strikeforce Welterweight title along the way and is on a 10 fight win streak overall.
What to expect: The shuffling of the matchup deck still leaves us with an outstanding matchup in the Welterweight division with title shots on the line and a potential fight of the year tag to go along with it. On paper this fight looks to be a tie with striking and jiujitsu being even, Penn is the better wrestler while Diaz would have the edge in conditioning. Wherever this fight ends up it's guaranteed to be an incredible battle if Diaz stands in front of Penn and starts to swing as he does frequently will Penn be able to counter and land a big shot? if this does go into the 3rd round will Diaz's conditioning allow him to take over the fight much like Fitch did against Penn. The ground battle would be equally as great as the standup as both are BJJ Black Belts but as mentioned Penn has the advantage in wrestling and could be his key for a victory, while Diaz is dangerous off his back Penn is more dangerous on top and could very well be the first to submit Diaz. Diaz's key is to stay active using his great "punches n bunches" strategy while mixing up his strikes attacking the body and testing Penn's conditioning. Love or hate either fighter and the whole situation which has revolved around the main event we are still in store for a great matchup and while both fighters have their own roadblocks in getting a title shot the winner will definitely make a tremendous statement in getting one.
My Prediction: Penn by TKO 2nd Round
Cheick Kongo vs Matt Mitrione
16-6-2 Record 5-0
16-6-2 Record 5-0
36 Age 33
234 Weight 261
6'4 Height 6'2
82" Reach 82"
-115 Odds -115
How they got here: Kongo is coming off his trilling come from behind KO win over Pat Barry at UFC Live 4. Kongo is unbeaten in his last 3 fights with a draw against Travis Browne inbetween victories. Mitrione is coming off a win at UFC Live 4 as well when he defeated Christian Morecraft by TKO, and has won all 5 of his career fights in the UFC.What to expect: In his last against fight against Barry Kongo showed he can be hurt standing up, with the taller Mitrione with an equal reach and perhaps more power it could be Kongo who will be looking for refuge from the stand up game with a takedown. Mitrione should be able to capitalize with his evolving striking game while keeping Kongo on his heels.
My Prediction: Mitrione TKO 1st Round
Mirko Cro Cop vs Roy Nelson
27-9-2 Record 15-6
27-9-2 Record 15-6
37 Age 25
229 Weight 260
6'2 Height 6'0
73" Reach 73"
+240 Odds -240
How they got here: Cro Cop has now lost his last 2 bouts by TKO with the most recent one being against Brendan Schaub at UFC 128 and retirement is definitely on the mind of the Croatian, Nelson is also coming off 2 straight loses to Frank Mir and Junior Dos Santos, 2 fighters Cro Cop has also lost to.What to expect: Nelson has shown in the past he is not afraid to strike with anyone as he proved going the distance against heavy handed Junior Dos Santos. Aside from his jaw Nelson's really skilled advantage is on the ground as he does hold a BJJ Black Belt under Renzo Gracie. Cro Cop does have more than enough takedown defense awareness though to keep this fight standing and attempt to knock Big Country down.
My Prediction: Cro Cop TKO 2nd Round
Hatsu Hioki vs George Roop
24-4-2 Record 12-7-1
24-4-2 Record 12-7-1
28 Age 29
144.5 Weight 146
5'11 Height 6'1
N/A Reach 72"
-350 Odds +250
How they got here: Hioki is making his UFC debut while being considered one of the best fighters out of Japan today and ranked in the top 5 but most people, he has won 4 straight bouts while competition in Sengoku and Shooto. Roop is coming off his surprising TKO win over Josh Grispi at The Ulitmate Fighter 13 Finale evening his UFC Featherweight record to 1-1.What to expect: Roops reach will be something Hioki has to be aware of in the striking department but he's not going to completely towered over by Roop. Hioki's submission game could very well be a much bigger threat to Roop than Roop's striking is to Hioki. Hioki should be able to live up to the hype and prove he is a top 5 Featherweight and serious contender.
My Prediction: Hioki by Submission 2nd Round
Scott Jorgensen vs Jeff Curran
12-4 Record 33-13-1
29 Age 34
135 Weight 145
5'6 Height 5'6
66" Reach N/A
+355 Odds -370
29 Age 34
135 Weight 145
5'6 Height 5'6
66" Reach N/A
+355 Odds -370
How they got here: Curran is making his return to the UFC after competed at UFC 46 against Matt Serra losing a decision, overall Curran has won 2 fights in a row. Jorgensen is coming off his UFC debut TKO victory over Ken Stone at The Ultimate Fighter 13 finale.
What to expect: Curran's experience and Jiu Jitsu vs Jorgensen's power and wrestling. Jorgensen looking to showcase his striking and keeping this standing for all 3 rounds is probably the most likely scenario while Curran will want to get this to the ground but not on his back against the wrestler.
My Prediciton: Jorgensen by Decision
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