UFC Fight Night 25: Previewing the Prelims

Vagner Rocha vs Cody McKenzie

6-1 Record 12-1

29 Age 23

155 Weight 155

5'11 Height 6'0

73" Reach 72"

-165 Odds +135

How they got here: McKenzie 1-1 in the UFC is coming off his first career loss.  The loss was by way of choke against Yves Edwards, the loss though continues the streak of 12 straight fights for McKenzie that have ended by choke.  Rocha is coming off his UFC debut which he took on short notice against Donald Cerrone and perhaps surprised alot of people taking Cerrone to a decision but ultimately losing.


What to expect: On paper what we have here is potentially a pretty entertaining ground battle between these 2 Lightweights.  Much like McKenzie's last opponent he most likely is faced up against someone too knowledgeable on the ground to be fazed by his unorthodox style.  Rocha hung in tough against Cerrone and should be able to get his first UFC win this time around.


My Prediction: Rocha by Decision

Evan Dunham vs Shamar Bailey

11-2 Record 12-3

29 Age 28

156 Weight 171

5'10 Height 5'8

70" Reach 75"

-450 Odds +300

How they got here: Dunham has seen his brief top 10 ranking disappear after 2 straight loses the most recent one a TKO against Melvin Guillard.  Bailey is making the drop to the Lightweight division even though he won his last bout at Welterweight against Ryan McGilvray.


What to expect: Condition will come into a factor for Bailey has will the potential hard weight cut.  Dunham doesn't need much of an opening and will gladly grind out Bailey to tire him out and look for a finish submission or TKO.


My Prediction: Dunham by TKO 2nd Round

Matt Riddle vs Lance Benoist

5-2 Record 5-0

25 Age 23

170.5 Weight 170.5

6'1 Height 5'11

N/A Reach N/A

-130 Odds +160

How they got here: Riddle is coming off his exciting decision loss to Sean Pierson and had a bout against TJ Grant canceled earlier this year due to him suffering an injury.  The prospect Benoist is making his UFC debut and has won all 5 of his fights by stoppage.


What to expect: Both has similar records but it is Riddle with the experience edge as all 7 of his bouts have been under the UFC banner.  Benoist is a young prospect to keep an eye on and should give Riddle a pretty tough test.  Riddle could most likely be looking for a brawl but the more technical Benoist should be able to weather the storm and make a statement in his UFC debut.


My Prediction: Benoist by Decision

Donny Walker vs Ken Stone

16-7 Record 9-3

31 Age 28

135 Weight 136

5'8 Height 5'9

71" Reach N/A

-110 Odds -120

How they got here: Walker is coming off his UFC debut which was a decision loss to Jeff Hougland in a pretty entertaining bout.  Stone has now lost 2 in a row with Zuffa, his UFC debut against Scott Jorgensen and in the WEC against Eddie Wineland.


What to expect: We should expect a pretty even battle right to the finish between these 2 Bantamweight.  Stone possibly could be the aggressor having lost 2 in a row and looking to get back in the good graces of the UFC brass.


My Prediction: Stone by Decision

Seth Baczynski vs Clay Harvison

13-6 Record 7-1

29 Age 30

185 Weight 171

6'3 Height 6'0

N/A Reach 73"

-150 Odds +120

How they got here: Battle of 2 Ultimate Fighter cast members.  Harvison is on a 3 fight win streak including his UFC debut against Justin Edwards who he defeated by a close split decision.  Bacynski stepping in for the injured Demarques Johnson has won his last 2 fights in a row to get back into the big show after losing his UFC debut against Brad Tavares.


What to expect:  Harvison could try and turn this into a brawl but the bigger and taller Baczynski should be able to control this fight wherever he sees his best opportunity and could finish Harvison.


My Prediction: Bacynski by TKO 3rd Round

Mike Stumpf vs T.J. Waldburger

11-2 Record 13-6

25 Age 23

 185 Weight 170

5'10 Height 5'11

N/A Reach N/A

+180 Odds -225

How they got here: Waldburger is making his 3rd UFC appearance all on Fight Nights so far he is 1-1 losing his last to Johnny Hendricks.  Stumpf is replacing the injured Daniel Roberts and making his UFC debut, he won his last bout this year after being out of action for 3 years.


What to expect: The long layoff then the jump to the big show on short notice could be a huge factor for Stumpf.  He probably will put up a good fight and not get finished but Waldburger should walk away with the decision in this one.


My Prediction: Waldburger by Decision

Mike Lullo vs Robert Peralta

8-3 Record 14-3

32 Age 25

 155 Weight 144.5

5'8 Height 5'7

N/A Reach N/A

+140 Odds -170

How they got here: Lullo is coming off his UFC debut against Edson Barboza which he lost by TKO. Peralta is making his UFC debut after having beat Dream Featherweight champion Hiroyuki Takaya in Strikeforce and has won 7 fights in a row overall.


What to expect: Lullo doesn't get any favours in his second time around with the UFC getting another dangerous opponent in Peralta who looks for the finish.  Lullo does have the size advantage but that might not enough against Peralta who has 13 stoppage victories.

My Prediction: Peralta by TKO 1st Round

Jorge Lopez vs Justin Edwards

11-1 Record 6-1

22 Age 26

169.5 Weight 170

5'10 Height 5'10

N/A Reach 70"

-425 Odds +290

How they got here: Edwards is coming off his UFC debut which was a close split decision loss to fellow Fight Night competitor Clay Harvison.  Lopez is making his UFC debut after winning 10 straight bouts his last 2 in with the Tachi Palace Fights organization.


What to expect: Edwards will have his hands full with the explosive Lopez who will probably get in Edwards face right away looking for the knock out.  Edwards can hope to weather the storm and get the fight the ground and away from Lopez's power but that could be a tall order for him to do so.


My Prediction: Lopez by TKO 1st Round

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